How to bet the Preakness

May 15

3 min read

Now you may be asking yourself, "why a horse racing blog two weeks after the Kentucky Derby?"

I could say, "well it's the 150th running of the Preakness this Saturday at Old Hilltop. The middle jewel of the Triple Crown. One of the biggest races of the year. Why not?" But that's boring.

I could answer by bringing up the Derby trifecta I hit a few weeks back; however, I am way too humble for that.

The truth is, I have never written a blog before. I had a bit of "failure to launch" and now I'm kicking myself after the big Derby win. So now we're typing...

And I get it, many of you have hit your horse racing quota for the year now that the First Saturday in May has come and gone. I mean, the race is during moving day at the *PGA Championship for heaven's sake. Albeit without Talor Gooch (hence the asterisk).

However, if you decide you can spare a minute and fifty seconds at 7:01pm Saturday night, I will share with you my thoughts on betting the race:

The main difference between the Preakness and the Derby is the distance: the Derby is 1 1/4 miles, while the Preakness is shorter at 1 3/16 miles. This is more beneficial than the Derby for early "speed" horses, as they have a better chance of maintaining their pace, while stalking horses have less time to close the gap. I struggle more with this race to figure out which horse to favor, rather than always going with the stalking horses in the Derby.

The other challenge is that some of these horses will be coming off only a two week break, something they likely have never done. Are you going to get a tired horse?

Below is the crop of horses for this year's race:

Post Position - Horse Name - Current Odds

Goal Oriented 6/1
Journalism 8/5
American Promise 15/1
Heart of Honor 12/1
Pay Billy 20/1
River Thames 9/2
Sandman 4/1
Clever Again 5/1
Gosger 20/1

Go ahead and toss Pay Billy (20/1) and Heart of Honor (12/1). Pay Billy is comparable to a Michael Block, completely outclassed by the field. Heart of Honor is an international horse that last lost to the last-place finisher at the Derby. I'm out.

American Promise (15/1) was uninspiring in his Derby attempt, but might have a better chance as a "speed" horse. If you want to see an absolute stallion, watch this horse strut out onto the track.

If you are gonna tail Baffert, I don't blame you. His horse is Goal Oriented (6/1). This is a speed horse that is starting inside, which is dangerous.

Sandman (4/1) is a closing horse that would come from behind. Owned by a TikToker, which naturally makes me knock him down a few points. I tend to think he's spending too much time on TikTok with his owner and his best days are behind him. Think Juju Smith-Schuster post-AB.

Journalism (8/5) is the overwhelming favorite and fastest horse in the field. His race is to stalk and take your soul down the stretch.

River Thames (9/2) lost by a neck to Sovereignty which has aged well.

Clever Again (5/1) will likely run out to the lead with Goal Oriented, but I think he's faster. I can't figure out if he'll get caught.

Gosger (20/1) is the Wild Card here. He is a closer as well and has improved each race. However, he has been nowhere near as fast as some of these horses above…yet.

BEST BETS

I'll start with the boring one. I am taking Journalism on a Win bet at anything that is above Even odds.
I think Journalism and River Thames come roaring down the stretch late with Gosger close behind. They'll be chasing Clever Again, American Promise, and Goal Oriented. I think Clever Again holds on to score third.
Take the Exacta 2-6 BOX and then Trifecta 2-6-8 BOX
If you are feeling crazy, mix in Gosger for the long odds and higher payouts.